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By The Numbers: Downtown’s Shrinking Inventory

By The Numbers: Downtown’s Shrinking Inventory

DT Resale Chart - May TTM

The data supports what we all see – demand exceeds supply for downtown condos, especially dwellings priced under $500,000.  May was the first month ever that both the average and median price per foot for a downtown resale was over $400/ft.

At the extremes, asking prices for new construction high-luxury condos are approaching $1000 per foot, and there are several recently recorded transactions between $700-$800 per square foot.

Downtown condo inventory as of 6/7/2013

1) total resales available = 49
2) total new construction available = 77 est.

As of this post, there are only 13 units for sale under $500,000, and built within the past 15 years, in all of downtown Austin.  This leaves us with just over one month of inventory available for the largest segment of condo buyers in downtown’s core.

The lack of new product in the market is putting significant upward pricing pressure on resales.  With no new condo development planned in downtown, as interest rates remain low, resale prices will continue to rise to meet the demand.

DT Resale Chart - May TTM - MaxMin

You’ll recall that back in January, for the first time, the average sales price of a new construction downtown condo exceeded, $1,000,000.  There were 14 closings in May for new construction condos: the Austonian, W Hotel, and Four Seasons Residences.  Spring is sold out.  [UPDATE: The Four Seasons is sold out, with contracts pending.]  The W and Four Seasons could officially be sold out after another couple months of sales and pending contracts close.  The Austonian has a pretty good inventory remaining, but soon lacking any competition sales could accelerate quickly.

May 2013 Resale Statistics

- Total sales volume (resales only) =  $12,717,900
- # of resale transactions = 22
- avg price per foot = $453
- median price per foot = $424
- avg sales price = $578,086
- avg sales price to list price (SP/LP) = 97%
- avg condo size = 1275 sq. ft.
- avg price per bedroom = $343,727
- avg days on market (DOM) = 43 days

May 2013 New Construction Statistics

- # of new construction transactions = 14
- avg price per foot = $700-$800/ft est.
- Total new construction sales volume =  not reported

Downtown Austin New Construction Closings - Through June 7th, 2013

ProjectDate of
1st Closing
# of
Closed Units
(Clerk)
# of
Original Units
(TCAD)
% Units
Closed
# of
Remaining Units
Average
# of Days
Per Sale
Trending Completion Date (estimated)
TOTALS39347084%77
Four Seasons ResidencesMay 7, 201014014895%88July 2013
W Hotel ResidencesJanuary 10, 201114015988%196September 2013
The AustonianJune 10, 2010
113163
69%5010June 2014
The data was updated on June 7th, 2013. Any closings since then are not reflected. Only deed records counted and adjusted based on information from respective buildings' sales offices. Data does not reflect units currently under contract. Deed records for parking spaces and storage units have been removed. Combined units are divided into their respective original units when possible to determine.

DT Resale Chart - May TTM





BREAKING: Sales Of New Downtown Austin Condos Average More Than $1,000,000

BREAKING: Sales Of New Downtown Austin Condos Average More Than $1,000,000

downtown-austin-condo-pricing-data-2012

For the first time, the average sales price of a new condo in downtown Austin is more than $1,000,000.

It’s not news that residences cost more than $1,000,000.  It is news when we’re talking about averages!  To be clear, we are focusing on new construction only, not resales (which have also had a banner year, and we’ll cover that in a future post.)

In 2012, the Austonian, Four Seasons Residences, W Hotel Residences, and Spring Condos (which in 2012 closed out their sales), accounted for 124 sales.

According to builder reports assembled by Capitol Market Research for new construction condos sold during the past 12 months:

  • average price = $1,061,682
  • average size = 1,701 ft.
  • number new condos sold = 124

The data is provided to us monthly as an aggregate of the above four buildings.  Anonymizing individual building sales was the only way to convince the developers to share their sales data.  To qualify the average price, we can approximate a median price using the 12 monthly aggregate records we have.

  • median monthly average price = $1,044,181 (min $777,813 to max $1,687,857)

The refrain which began in 2010 continues: there are no new downtown Austin condos being built.  Nor have we seen any new site plans for downtown condos.  Inventories continue to decrease (by 124 units in 2012) and residences are selling quickly at prices close to the asking price.  An ancillary effect of this shrinking inventory is rising prices for resales.

By my estimation, when compared against TCAD records, only 115 new construction units remain.  If interest rates remain low, the downtown Austin real estate market is on a trajectory to complete sales of new construction condos in 2013.

I’ll continue to provide detailed analysis of 2012 results over the coming weeks, including resales and analysis of building-by-building performance.

-Jude





BY THE NUMBERS (June): Downtown Austin Condo Sales

BY THE NUMBERS (June): Downtown Austin Condo Sales

downtown austin condo price trends

In June, we observed downtown Austin condo prices averaging $381/ft for resales and $590/ft for new-luxury sales. With no new projects planned, a chunk of downtown Austin’s condo inventory is removed every month.

Pricing in Austin’s urban core continues to trend up for three reasons:

1) Shrinking inventory emboldens sellers
2) Low interest rates – hovering at 3.40% – enticing buyers
3) Migration patterns into Texas, specifically Austin, more specifically downtown Austin

Combined sales of new construction and resales removed 41 units from inventory in June, representing $25,156,400 total sales volume.

Currently, there are 94 resales and 172 new construction units available for sale in the downtown Austin core.

downtown austin condo price trends

June 2012 Resale Statistics

- # of resale transactions = 28
- avg price per foot = $381
- avg sales price to list price (SP/LP) = 91%
- avg days on market (DOM) = 17 days
- Total resales volume =  $12,829,900

June 2012  New Construction Statistics

- # of new construction transactions = 13
- avg price per foot = $590
- Total new construction sales volume =  $12,326,500

Downtown Austin New Construction Closings

ProjectDate of
1st Closing
# of
Closed Units
(Clerk)
# of
Original Units
(TCAD)
% Units
Closed
# of
Remaining Units
Average
# of Days
Per Sale
Trending Completion Date (estimated)
TOTALS29847063%172
Four Seasons ResidencesMay 7, 201010414870%446March 2013
W Hotel ResidencesJanuary 10, 20119715961%624February 2013
The AustonianJune 10, 2010
97163
60%666August 2013
The data was updated on July 1st, 2012. Any closings since then are not reflected. Only deed records counted. Data does not reflect units currently under contract. Deed records for parking spaces and storage units have been removed. Combined units were divided into their respective original units.




BY THE NUMBERS: Downtown Austin Highrise Sales

BY THE NUMBERS: Downtown Austin Highrise Sales

downtown austin real estate prices

In light of the recent Statesman article highlighting new construction sales, I thought this would be a good time to update our trending chart for downtown condos.

Combined sales of new construction and resales of downtown Austin condos delivered a seasonally strong 46 transactions representing $26,720,149 total sales volume in March.

Currently there are 95 resales and 197 new construction condos available for sale in the downtown Austin core.  That’s not many.  Within the past 12 months, we’ve seen 201 resales and 186 new construction sales.

In the chart below, that little red trend line for average resale price per foot gets steeper each month as we see more resales in the top-tier buildings.  By this time next year, you will be able to count the total availability of new construction condos on two hands.

downtown austin real estate prices

March 2012 Resale Statistics

- # of resale transactions = 29
- avg price per foot = $364
- avg sales price to list price (SP/LP) = 97%
- avg days on market (DOM) = 32 days
- Total resales volume =  $12,038,599

March 2012  New Construction Statistics

- # of new construction transactions = 17
- avg price per foot = $554
- Total new construction sales volume =  $14,681,550

Downtown Austin New Construction Closings

ProjectDate of
1st Closing
# of
Closed Units
(Clerk)
# of
Original Units
(TCAD)
% Units
Closed
# of
Remaining Units
Average
# of Days
Per Sale
Trending Completion Date (estimated)
TOTALS52171873%197
Four Seasons ResidencesMay 7, 20109914867%496March 2013
Spring CondosAugust 17, 200924724899%1 (5 reported)4June 2012
W Hotel ResidencesJanuary 10, 20119115957%684February 2013
The AustonianJune 10, 2010
84163
52%797November 2013
The data was assembled on May 1st, 2012. Only new construction sales counted. Data does not reflect units currently under contract. Combined units were divided into their respective original units.

 





DAB Stats: Downtown Austin Sales

DAB Stats: Downtown Austin Sales

downtown austin condo sales - february 2012

February delivered strong numbers for sales of downtown Austin condos.  I count nine new construction sales and 14 resales (compared to six and 10 in January respectively).

The 14 resales averaged $397 per square foot – the highest monthly average for resales that I can remember.  Don’t mistake this for accelerating appreciation, though.  Included in February’s numbers is a resale at the Austonian.  And, while there’s clearly a gradual upward trend in the resale market, February’s price-per-foot surge is attributable to this burgeoning market for resales in the top-tier buildings.

trailing 12 months of downtown condo sales

You can anticipate that by the end of March all of the top-tier buildings will [factually] be over 50% closed. Each has already crossed the chasm.

Notably, Spring condos has only a couple of new units left, the [seriously amazing] penthouse(s) being one of them.  For most buyers, Spring condos can be considered sold out and opportunities to buy are in the resale market.  The Four Seasons Residences leads the pack in terms of percentage of units sold, though the W Hotel Residences is showing the greatest velocity. See below.

Downtown New Construction Closings

ProjectDate of
1st Closing
# of
Closed Units
(Clerk)
# of
Original Units
(TCAD)
% Units
Closed
# of
Remaining Units
Average
# of Days
Per Sale
Trending Completion Date (estimated)
TOTALS50371870%215
Four Seasons ResidencesMay 7, 20109314863%556March 2013
Spring CondosAugust 17, 200924724899%14March 2012
W Hotel ResidencesJanuary 10, 20118315952%764February 2013
The AustonianJune 10, 2010
80163
49%837November 2013
The data was assembled on March 4th, 2012. Data does not reflect units currently under contract. Combined units were split into their respective original units.




2011 Recap of Downtown Austin Condo Sales

2011 Recap of Downtown Austin Condo Sales

downtown austin condo sales - 2011 prices trailing 12 months

Challenged to articulate a narrative around 2011 downtown Austin real estate data, I’ve been keeping this post under wraps for a couple of weeks.  Data is useful to me and my clients, but these numbers have little meaning without context and history.

How do I convey that the best news is no news at all?

Stability in the downtown condo market continues to be the story. Stability attracts the timid buyers from the sidelines. Those additional buyers embolden timid sellers to enter the market.

What forces are creating stability downtown? Low interest rates, shrinking inventory, and multi-generational demand for urban lifestyle. We can see the outcome of stability in the chart below: the gradually upward sloping trend line.

downtown austin condos - 10 years of resale data

downtown austin condos - 10 years of resale data

In 2011, if you were a seller in downtown Austin, then you did slightly better than sellers in 2010.  If you were a buyer in downtown Austin in 2011, then you were more focused on lifestyle and proximity, rather than the post-bust discount pricing found in 2008-2009.

Highlights

Looking back on the downtown Austin condo market in 2011, we see $77,688,824 in total resales over 200 resale transactions.  Combined with an estimated $120,000,000 in downtown new construction sales from another 200 transactions, 2011 reflects a healthy real estate market, gradually trending up. [Read more...]





Crossing The Chasm: A Perspective On New Construction

Crossing The Chasm: A Perspective On New Construction

Crossing-The-Chasm-Adoption-Lifecycle

Because I’m a real estate geek, I’m continuously looking at sales metrics, updating my databases, and endeavoring to uncover useful information.  In this post, I’m attempting two things: 1) offer some perspective on sales in downtown Austin’s high profile buildings, and 2) predict when those buildings will approach being completely sold.  If you just want the data then skip to the end.

One of my mentors shared with me an insight: the first buyers are innovators - early adopters that fill up the bandwagon and help throttle the acceptance of something new.  It applies to new real estate development, as much as it does to new technologies.

Now that the cranes are long gone, where are the new construction projects in their sales cycles? [Read more...]





Downtown Austin Condo Sales Remain Strong In May

Downtown Austin Condo Sales Remain Strong In May

downtown austin condo closings may

For the first time since the bubble burst, the average price per square foot of a downtown Austin condo has increased four months in a row. Last month, downtown Austin closed 62 condos* with 29 more pending!

Highlights

In May, we counted 41 closings of new-construction condos from the Four Seasons Residences, W Hotel, Austonian, Spring Condos, and Barton Place.  The W takes the cake with 15 closings in May.

On the other hand, the number of resales comes in at 21 units closed – a strong showing – averaging a price of $334 per square foot. We also count 29 resales pending as of May 31st!  So, we can expect next month’s closing count to be similarly strong.

[Read more...]





Based on information from the Austin Board of REALTORS ® (alternatively, from ACTRIS) for the period through 9/22/14 2:08 AM PDT. Neither the Board nor ACTRIS guarantees or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. All data is provided “AS IS” and with all faults. Data maintained by the Board or ACTRIS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

Information being provided is for consumers’ personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties consumers may be interested in purchasing.

This IDX solution is (c) Diverse Solutions 2014.