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Downtown Austin Condo Prices On The Rise in December

by | January 7, 2011 |Leave a Comment
downtown austin condo stats december 2010

1) Price Per Foot, and 2) Number of Transactions (monthly, Jan-Dec 2010)

The downtown Austin loft & condo market hit many milestones this year: 1) Austonian opened 2) Four Seasons opened 3) W Hotel residences approached completion.  Downtown hosted over $60MM in resale transactions during the year.  Moreover, to the surprise or chagrin of some, buyers are flocking to the top-tier buildings.  We close out 2010 with 38 closed transactions in the month of December – 18 resale, and 20 direct to developer.

The above chart shows downtown austin condo resale trends based on monthly data from 2010.  Direct to developer transactions are not shown on the chart.  The most salient trend we can glean from this data is the average sales price hovering steadily ~$300 per square foot.

Details after the jump… [Read more...]

Filed Under: austin condos, Austin Data & Statistics, austin towers and high rises, DAB Stats, data, statistics, downtown austin, Downtown Austin lofts, condos, apartments, Downtown Austin lofts, condos, apartments

Downtown Austin Condo Prices Drop in November

by | December 6, 2010 |1 Comment
downtown austin condo trends nov 2010

downtown austin condo trends nov 2010

Judging by the average numbers, November was a rough month for resales of downtown Austin condos.  Conversely, luxury condos continue to post strong numbers for the second month in a row.  Back in October, I was surprised by the large number of closings we observed in the downtown Austin’s top-tier condo buildings.  The ABJ followed up with a story saying “Verdict’s in: Austin condos did work.”

Top-tier (new buildings)
While the high-end market continues to show good numbers, it’s not clear to me how many of these closings are from original reservations, rather than new purchase contracts (within the past 120 days).

-Four Seasons shows 49 closed units, six closed in November.

-Austonian shows 32 closed units, two closed in November.

-Spring shows ~165-170 closed units closed, nine closed in November.  It should be noted that these were, in fact, all new contracts.

Resales
Using data available on Nov 30th, 11 downtown austin condos closed at an average $252 per square foot.  That’s the lowest average price since August of 2009, and is 19.5% lower than the average resale price compared to November of last year.  Compared to downtown condo sales in October, prices were down 14%.  Also interesting, average days-on-market (DOM) was 118 days – not surprising to see closing prices averaging 12% less than original asking prices.

November Downtown Austin Condo Sales

AddressBuildingBedroomsSquare FeetSold Price
1800 Lavaca St #608Greenwood Towers2857Call
507 Sabine St #305The Sabine21462Call
505 W 7th St #318Posada del Rey21049Call
901 W 9th St #311The Nokonah1849Call
360 Nueces St #1001360 Condos1801Call
555 E 5th St #9235 Fifty Five (555)11195Call
1705 Pearl St31879Call
1801 Lavaca St #14MCambridge Towers2912Call
411 Brazos St #224Brazos Lofts11313Call
800 W 5th St #505Austin City Lofts21482Call
80 Red River St #307Villas on Town Lake1675Call
Data assembled from Austin MLS for November sales of downtown Austin condos
Filed Under: austin condos, austin lofts, austin towers and high rises, DAB Stats, data, statistics, downtown austin, Downtown Austin lofts, condos, apartments Tagged With: , ,

HOLY COW: October Residential Transactions

by | November 4, 2010 |2 Comments

I’m blown away by the number of closings that occurred in October for new luxury condos in downtown Austin.  Total number of downtown Austin condo transactions in October is confirmed at 29 30 closings! Resale data shows eight resale transactions, two of which were over $1MM.  Here’s the kicker: there were a combined 21 closings at the Four Seasons Residences, Spring, and The Austonian!

I spent extra time this month confirming transaction reports at the top-tier buildings.  “Spin” was minimal and there is genuine transaction velocity.

October Highlights:

  1. two $1MM+ resale transactions (not including developer sales at top-tier buildings)
  2. The Austonian shows 30 closed units, nine in October.
  3. The Four Seasons Residences shows 43 closed units, six in October.
  4. Spring Condos closed six seven in October.
  5. DANA’s Downtown Living Tour was the biggest ever with over 1000 attendees.
  6. W Hotel is hiring its staff, and buyers with contracts are anxiously awaiting their Q1 2011 move in date

One not so bright spot in the data: the number of resale transactions is down year-to-year, from 18 in October of 2009 to just eight this past month.  The data below highlights last month’s aggregate sales statistics for MLS Area “DT”.

MLS resale statistics

Investors and economic contrarians, like me, who demand value should continue to be on the prowl for deals on downtown Austin condos by focusing on the resale market.  Especially during the winter months, increased seasonal buying power is evident.  I’m working one short sale deal right now, and I’ve targeted others for my clients.  For example, I’m tracking a 2bd/2ba at Milago that can be purchased for under $299,900 SOLD (inquire with me).

The average resale price remains steady at $294.55 per square foot, compared to $293.65 psf in October 2009.  The chart below shows downtown resale transactions.  Notice the spike in buying activity during the springtime.  Now, notice the subsequent fall off…  that’s a buying opportunity. :-)

-Jude

MLS resale trends

October Downtown Austin Condo Sales

AddressBuildingBedroomsSquare FeetSold Price
54 Rainey St #614Milago Condos21164Call
1801 Lavaca St #10MCambridge Towers1912Call
603 Davis St #909The Shore Condos21286Call
1122 Colorado St #2204Westgate Tower33611Call
603 Davis St #1911The Shore Condos21219Call
54 Rainey St #318Milago Condos21164Call
603 Davis St #1211The Shore Condos21219Call
555 E 5th St #3122Five Fifty 5 (555)34100Call
Austin MLS data collected in October for the downtown Austin market area
Filed Under: austin condos, austin lofts, DAB Stats, data, statistics, downtown austin

DAB STATS: September Residential Transactions

by | October 6, 2010 |2 Comments

Chill out.  Cool off.  It’s not just the weather, but the market chilled in September yielding a stellar month for downtown Austin buyers.  In September, the average sale price of a downtown Austin condo was $282 per square foot.  This is based on 12 recorded transactions in the Austin MLS.   Year-to-year comparison shows last month was down from $338 per square foot across 20 transactions in September of 2009.  Month-to-month, September was down from $298 per square foot across 16 transactions recorded in August.

Highlights:

-Speaking of cooling off: hell froze over in September as the Statesman, frequently antagonistic to high rises, published an upbeat review of the downtown luxury market.

-A cartoon reminded us of an all too familiar exchange.

-We saw a glimpse of 2006 with a genuine bidding war on a bank owned unit at Brazos Place.

Top Tier Summary:

Not reflected in the MLS data are developers’ direct transactions at the top-tier buildings.  According to TCAD, the Austonian shows eight closings, which is one more than last month.  At the W Hotel Residences, with 159 total units, we’re told that 60% of the units are under contract, and the ability to now get into the building has been increasing contract velocity to 3-4 per month.  We’ve been informed that at the Four Seasons Residences ~40 units have closed, with another 40 under contract.

You can search for Austin condos and lofts using our map-based viewer.  Registered members of DAB can download a complete statistical and transaction report here.

-Jude

September Downtown Austin Condo Sales

AddressBuildingBedroomsSquare FeetSold Price
710 Colorado St #A8Brown Building1849Call
360 Nueces St #3703360 Condos1728Call
54 Rainey St #1220Milago Condos1750Call
54 Rainey St #517Milago Condos1865Call
1212 Guadalupe St #301Penthouse Condos2954Call
360 Nueces St #2707360 Condos1852Call
54 Rainey St #1011Milago Condos1756Call
800 Brazos St #911Brazos Place Condos1622Call
603 Davis St #607The Shore Condos1771Call
901 W 9th St #419The Nokonah1731Call
507 Sabine St #303The Sabine1693Call
360 Nueces St #1013360 Condos1861Call
Austin MLS data collected in September for the downtown Austin market area

Filed Under: austin towers and high rises, DAB Stats, data, statistics, downtown austin, Downtown Austin lofts, condos, apartments

DAB STATS – August Residential Sales Summary

by | September 3, 2010 |2 Comments

Oh, August.  TGIF.  It’s been so friggin’ hot!

August and December seem to be the two months when real estate is not a priority for most families.  It’s vacation time.  Back-to-school time.  And, in Austin, Texas it’s violently hot.  So hot that downtown Austin’s walkability loses some of its romance.

In August we recorded 16 transactions, with the average sale price of a downtown Austin condo hovering around $298 per foot.  Once again, this is consistent with recent evidence that shows +/- $300 per foot seems to be a homeostatic equilibrium for downtown Austin.

Of the top-tier buildings, TCAD shows 11 7 closed units at the Austonian.  The W Hotel Residences are approaching completion.  The Four Seasons Residences TCAD entries have yet to be divided into individual records.  TCAD can take 30 days to update.

You can search for Austin condos and lofts using our map-based viewer.  Registered members of DAB can download a complete statistical and transaction report here.

-Jude

Filed Under: Austin Data & Statistics, DAB Stats, downtown austin, Downtown Austin lofts, condos, apartments

DAB STATS: July Transaction Summary

by | August 5, 2010 |Leave a Comment

In July of 2007 we recorded 14 transactions at an average of $353psf.

In July of 2008 we recorded 11 transactions at an average of $289psf.

In July of 2009 we recorded 13 transactions at an average of $267psf.

In July of 2010, we recorded 12 transactions at an average of $314psf!!

What insights can we glean from four years of July transaction data?  Based on my experience this year, I would say those numbers show that [in aggregate for downtown] a bottom had been reached, and we’re returning to normal where average prices hover around $300psf.

If developers reported sales (they don’t, but if they did), July’s closed Sabine units would nullify the effect of the higher priced closings at the Austonian, Spring, and Four Seasons.  Also, at least two of July’s transactions were deeply discounted transactions at Milago and yet the average numbers are still strong.

The market continues to place a premium west of Congress Avenue, as transactions at Austin City Lofts and 360 condos exceed $400psf.  Feedback from my clients indicate this premium is a reflection of these buildings’ proximity to a mix of retail uses and to Whole Foods.  As inventories of new construction continue to dwindle, the average buyers’ expectations are beginning to come back inline with a healthy resale market.

An example of a great buy in July:  Milago #423. A 2bd/2ba corner unit at tree level with city views for $300,000.  The seller took a hit on this one and originally paid $382,500.  Also, I’m bullish on the Rainey Street District, future improvements to Waller Creek, and the desirability of living near the trail for couples/families.

What does the buyer who prioritizes value do now?  Be prepared.  Get pre-qualified for a mortgage.  Be ready to pounce on the random short sale or bank owned property.  I seem to find 1-2 each month.  Forget about foreclosure auctions in downtown – they simply do not happen with any regularity, and 99% of the time the bank takes back the property and lists it on the MLS market where they can get closer to market rates.  Of course, you can go to the courthouse to see for yourself.  Or, you can just contact me.

Registered members of DAB can download a complete statistical and transaction report here.

-Jude

Filed Under: Austin Data & Statistics, DAB Stats

DAB STATS – June Transaction Summary

by | July 1, 2010 |Leave a Comment

In June we made local real estate history.

1) We observed the most expensive (per foot) recorded transaction ever in downtown Austin: the 43rd floor 2bd/2ba 2022ft penthouse at 360 Condos, once owned by the building’s developer, sold for $717psf.  Note, this sets the record for a recorded transaction in downtown, that is auditable via the MLS.  We’re familiar with the off-record purchase of the 11,000ft penthouse at the Four Season Residences for more than ~$1,000 per square foot.

2) The Austonian posted in June a 3bd/3ba 45th floor unit for sale @ $1120psf.  This is the most expensive (per foot) unit ever listed in the MLS area “DT”.  Mind you, the 45th floor is well below the penthouse.

3) The Austonian and Four Seasons now have residents, and each building has closed more than a dozen units, with more in queue.  These transactions are not reflected in the summary data below.

The transactions in aggregate show year-to-year growth for the month of June from 13 to 17 transactions, selling at an average of $296psf to the current $321psf, respectively.  Compared to last month, prices are up from May’s average of $284psf.  As always these numbers require qualification.  Prices did not surge 13% from last month as the raw data would indicate.

In May, nearly 25% of the transactions occurred in buildings outside of the downtown core (Cambridge Tower, Penthouse, Greenwood Tower).  These buildings can generally trade $100psf less than the average, so when there is an abnormal number represented in “DT” sales, it brings the averages down.  In June, there were only two of these transactions.

I’m increasingly using a modified version of the DT boundary that brings the boundary south from MLK to 15th Street, as this better represents the core, but I will always indicate this to you when doing so.

Registered members of DAB can download a complete statistical and transaction detail report here.

-Jude

Filed Under: Austin Data & Statistics, DAB Stats, data, statistics

DAB STATS – May Transaction Summary

by | June 1, 2010 |Leave a Comment

WHEW…

In May, we saw at least four articles suggesting that more downtown Austin buildings are forthcoming: Block 51, Austin Energy building on West Ave, City planning a new parking garage, State capitol considering more density.  We haven’t seen that many speculative media reports about downtown development since 2006.

We’ve been hammering the point that there is no more new inventory under $400 per foot.  It’s gone.  But, don’t get caught up in the hype about new construction, at least not yet.  Even if the data suggests that there is capacity for more new attainably priced product (2bds/2ba+ for under $400k), the capital markets aren’t racing to provide financing.

Conversely, there’s a robust resale market working like a well oiled machine.  The difference between average asking price and average sale price is shrinking.  Last month, across 22 transactions, this spread was ~4%.  Timid buyers and sellers should take confidence in this stability.  To drive home the point even further, we witnessed at least two bidding wars last month.  Many buyers are longing for the days of 2008 and 2009 when 25-30% discounts were being offered.

Area “DT” – MLS defined market area for downtown Austin – has such diverse product that average numbers cannot be used without qualification.   For instance, it is necessary to qualify the age, location, and level of amenities when comparing Cambridge Tower to 360 Condos. ($226psf vs. $385psf, respectively)

Average price for area DT was $283.91 per foot, based on data collected from 22 transactions recorded in May.  That is down from May of 2009 when pricing was $303 per foot across 13 transactions; however, the spread between list price and sale price in 2009 was closer to 10% – much more volatile.

The MLS data does not include private developer sales (Spring, Austonian, W Hotel, Four Seasons).  Multiple sources have shared with us that the W entered into approximately 10 deals in May, and will not accept offers with more than a 5% discount.   The Austonian recieved their certificate of occupancy and is planning it’s first closing next week.  No news from the Four Seasons.

Registered DAB subscribers may access the complete May 2010 transaction report.

-Jude

May Downtown Austin Condo Sales

AddressBuildingBedroomsSquare FeetSold Price
1212 Guadalupe St # 205Penthouse Condos1420Call
1212 Guadalupe St # 706Penthouse Condos1592Call
1801 Lavaca ST # 7BCambridge Tower0460Call
301 E 4th ST # 326Railyard Condos1520Call
54 Rainey St # 715Milago Condos1756Call
800 Brazos St # 1210Brazos Place1623Call
710 Colorado St # C-7Brown Building1711Call
505 W 7th St # 317Posada Del Rey2923Call
410 E 5th St # 204Avenue Lofts1852Call
40 N Interstate 35 # 11D3Towers Of Town Lake21533Call
360 Nueces ST # 3806360 Condos1748Call
1801 Lavaca St # 13ACambridge Tower21301Call
360 Nueces St # 3401360 Condos1801Call
1801 Lavaca ST # 13ECambridge Tower21294Call
1801 Lavaca St # 13FCambridge Tower21294Call
710 Colorado St # A-5Brown Building1849Call
800 Brazos St # 1101Brazos Place21170Call
901 W 9th St # 802Nokonah1754Call
40 N Interstate 35 # 10D3Towers Of Town Lake21533Call
360 Nueces ST # 2211360 Condos21280Call
360 Nueces St # 4204360 Condos2998Call
54 Rainey St # 1104Milago Condos21189Call
Data collected from Austin MLS for the downtown area
Filed Under: Austin Data & Statistics, DAB Stats Tagged With:

DAB STATS – April Transaction Summary

by | May 5, 2010 |Leave a Comment

This awesome image is from nataliedee.com

With 12 recorded transactions this past month, downtown Austin hosted 300% more transactions compared to April of 2009, when only four transactions were recorded.  For the month of April, the average sale price per foot remains unchanged between 2009 and 2010 at $276psf.

To provide a little more perspective, Q1 2010 compared to Q1 2009 saw negligible increase to $304 psf from $300 psf, respectively.  What is more interesting, IMO, last year in the first quarter of 2009 only 16 transactions were recorded; conversely, this year in the first quarter there were 33 transactions recorded!

This significant increase in recorded transactions, year-to-year, requires qualification.  Numerous unrecorded (off MLS) developer sales occurred in 2009.  Now, those buildings are sold out, and we’re seeing a surge in re-sale activity, which is recorded in the MLS.  This bodes well for transparent transaction data.  Re-sales are back, baby!  This is a trend we should continue to see for a few years.

A more detailed transaction list and statistical report can be accessed in the member area.

April Downtown Austin Condo Sales

Data collected from Austin MLS for the downtown area
AddressBuildingSquare FeetBedroomsSale Price
54 Rainey St #523Milago Condos11572Call
1122 Colorado St #1702Westgate Tower8932Call
201 E 4th St #205Railyard Condos11963Call
1212 Guadalupe St #304Penthouse Condos4661Call
360 Nueces St #3811360 Condos12802Call
1801 Lavaca St #7DCambridge Tower11891Call
311 W 5th St #702Plaza Lofts18962Call
40 N I-35 #4B2Towers Of Town Lake14592Call
411 Brazos St #204Brazos Lofts13511Call
1704 West Ave #304West Ave Condos7861Call
54 Rainey St #619Milago Condos7561Call
360 Nueces St #1810360 Condos7701Call
Filed Under: Austin Data & Statistics, DAB Stats, data, statistics, downtown austin

DAB STATS – Downtown Apartment Occupancy

by | April 23, 2010 |Leave a Comment

Checkout the occupancy rates (as of Tuesday) for downtown Austin apartment buildings.

Monarch @ 94% or 287 out of 305 units
Legacy On The Lake @ 92% or 172 out of 187 units
Ashton Austin @ 87% leased, 83% occupied or 214 out of 258 units
Gables West @ 92% or 220 out of 239 units
Gables Park Plaza @ 38% out of 188 units

And, it’s a very safe bet that AMLI Downtown (220 units) and AMLI on 2nd (231 units) are hovering between 95-98% occupied.

Our empirical data suggests that lease rates at apartment buildings are hovering in the ball park of $1.75 per rentable foot, on average, net of incentives.  MLS statistical reports for year-to-date downtown Austin condo leases corroborates this, reporting $1.88 per foot, on average, and ranging from $1.00-$2.40psf.  In 2008, before many of our new apartment buildings were completes, lease rates were even higher.  With no new projects on the horizon, and a strong demand for the urban life style, expect downtown lease rates to remain stable.

-Jude

Filed Under: austin apartments, Austin Data & Statistics, DAB Stats, data, statistics, downtown austin Tagged With:
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