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Austin Real Estate Data & Statistics

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DAB STATS – August Residential Sales Summary

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Oh, August.  TGIF.  It’s been so friggin’ hot!

August and December seem to be the two months when real estate is not a priority for most families.  It’s vacation time.  Back-to-school time.  And, in Austin, Texas it’s violently hot.  So hot that downtown Austin’s walkability loses some of its romance.

In August we recorded 16 transactions, with the average sale price of a downtown Austin condo hovering around $298 per foot.  Once again, this is consistent with recent evidence that shows +/- $300 per foot seems to be a homeostatic equilibrium for downtown Austin.

Of the top-tier buildings, TCAD shows 11 7 closed units at the Austonian.  The W Hotel Residences are approaching completion.  The Four Seasons Residences TCAD entries have yet to be divided into individual records.  TCAD can take 30 days to update.

You can search for Austin condos and lofts using our map-based viewer.  Registered members of DAB can download a complete statistical and transaction report here.

-Jude

DAB STATS: July Transaction Summary

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In July of 2007 we recorded 14 transactions at an average of $353psf.

In July of 2008 we recorded 11 transactions at an average of $289psf.

In July of 2009 we recorded 13 transactions at an average of $267psf.

In July of 2010, we recorded 12 transactions at an average of $314psf!!

What insights can we glean from four years of July transaction data?  Based on my experience this year, I would say those numbers show that [in aggregate for downtown] a bottom had been reached, and we’re returning to normal where average prices hover around $300psf.

If developers reported sales (they don’t, but if they did), July’s closed Sabine units would nullify the effect of the higher priced closings at the Austonian, Spring, and Four Seasons.  Also, at least two of July’s transactions were deeply discounted transactions at Milago and yet the average numbers are still strong.

The market continues to place a premium west of Congress Avenue, as transactions at Austin City Lofts and 360 condos exceed $400psf.  Feedback from my clients indicate this premium is a reflection of these buildings’ proximity to a mix of retail uses and to Whole Foods.  As inventories of new construction continue to dwindle, the average buyers’ expectations are beginning to come back inline with a healthy resale market.

An example of a great buy in July:  Milago #423. A 2bd/2ba corner unit at tree level with city views for $300,000.  The seller took a hit on this one and originally paid $382,500.  Also, I’m bullish on the Rainey Street District, future improvements to Waller Creek, and the desirability of living near the trail for couples/families.

What does the buyer who prioritizes value do now?  Be prepared.  Get pre-qualified for a mortgage.  Be ready to pounce on the random short sale or bank owned property.  I seem to find 1-2 each month.  Forget about foreclosure auctions in downtown – they simply do not happen with any regularity, and 99% of the time the bank takes back the property and lists it on the MLS market where they can get closer to market rates.  Of course, you can go to the courthouse to see for yourself.  Or, you can just contact me.

Registered members of DAB can download a complete statistical and transaction report here.

-Jude

DAB STATS – June Transaction Summary

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In June we made local real estate history.

1) We observed the most expensive (per foot) recorded transaction ever in downtown Austin: the 43rd floor 2bd/2ba 2022ft penthouse at 360 Condos, once owned by the building’s developer, sold for $717psf.  Note, this sets the record for a recorded transaction in downtown, that is auditable via the MLS.  We’re familiar with the off-record purchase of the 11,000ft penthouse at the Four Season Residences for more than ~$1,000 per square foot.

2) The Austonian posted in June a 3bd/3ba 45th floor unit for sale @ $1120psf.  This is the most expensive (per foot) unit ever listed in the MLS area “DT”.  Mind you, the 45th floor is well below the penthouse.

3) The Austonian and Four Seasons now have residents, and each building has closed more than a dozen units, with more in queue.  These transactions are not reflected in the summary data below.

The transactions in aggregate show year-to-year growth for the month of June from 13 to 17 transactions, selling at an average of $296psf to the current $321psf, respectively.  Compared to last month, prices are up from May’s average of $284psf.  As always these numbers require qualification.  Prices did not surge 13% from last month as the raw data would indicate.

In May, nearly 25% of the transactions occurred in buildings outside of the downtown core (Cambridge Tower, Penthouse, Greenwood Tower).  These buildings can generally trade $100psf less than the average, so when there is an abnormal number represented in “DT” sales, it brings the averages down.  In June, there were only two of these transactions.

I’m increasingly using a modified version of the DT boundary that brings the boundary south from MLK to 15th Street, as this better represents the core, but I will always indicate this to you when doing so.

Registered members of DAB can download a complete statistical and transaction detail report here.

-Jude

DAB STATS – May Transaction Summary

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WHEW…

In May, we saw at least four articles suggesting that more downtown Austin buildings are forthcoming: Block 51, Austin Energy building on West Ave, City planning a new parking garage, State capitol considering more density.  We haven’t seen that many speculative media reports about downtown development since 2006.

We’ve been hammering the point that there is no more new inventory under $400 per foot.  It’s gone.  But, don’t get caught up in the hype about new construction, at least not yet.  Even if the data suggests that there is capacity for more new attainably priced product (2bds/2ba+ for under $400k), the capital markets aren’t racing to provide financing.

Conversely, there’s a robust resale market working like a well oiled machine.  The difference between average asking price and average sale price is shrinking.  Last month, across 22 transactions, this spread was ~4%.  Timid buyers and sellers should take confidence in this stability.  To drive home the point even further, we witnessed at least two bidding wars last month.  Many buyers are longing for the days of 2008 and 2009 when 25-30% discounts were being offered.

Area “DT” – MLS defined market area for downtown Austin – has such diverse product that average numbers cannot be used without qualification.   For instance, it is necessary to qualify the age, location, and level of amenities when comparing Cambridge Tower to 360 Condos. ($226psf vs. $385psf, respectively)

Average price for area DT was $283.91 per foot, based on data collected from 22 transactions recorded in May.  That is down from May of 2009 when pricing was $303 per foot across 13 transactions; however, the spread between list price and sale price in 2009 was closer to 10% – much more volatile.

The MLS data does not include private developer sales (Spring, Austonian, W Hotel, Four Seasons).  Multiple sources have shared with us that the W entered into approximately 10 deals in May, and will not accept offers with more than a 5% discount.   The Austonian recieved their certificate of occupancy and is planning it’s first closing next week.  No news from the Four Seasons.

Registered DAB subscribers may access the complete May 2010 transaction report.

-Jude

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DAB STATS – April Transaction Summary

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This awesome image is from nataliedee.com

With 12 recorded transactions this past month, downtown Austin hosted 300% more transactions compared to April of 2009, when only four transactions were recorded.  For the month of April, the average sale price per foot remains unchanged between 2009 and 2010 at $276psf.

To provide a little more perspective, Q1 2010 compared to Q1 2009 saw negligible increase to $304 psf from $300 psf, respectively.  What is more interesting, IMO, last year in the first quarter of 2009 only 16 transactions were recorded; conversely, this year in the first quarter there were 33 transactions recorded!

This significant increase in recorded transactions, year-to-year, requires qualification.  Numerous unrecorded (off MLS) developer sales occurred in 2009.  Now, those buildings are sold out, and we’re seeing a surge in re-sale activity, which is recorded in the MLS.  This bodes well for transparent transaction data.  Re-sales are back, baby!  This is a trend we should continue to see for a few years.

A more detailed transaction list and statistical report can be accessed in the member area.

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