data, statistics

By The Numbers: Downtown’s Shrinking Inventory

Jude Galligan | June 9, 2013 |

The data supports what we all see – demand exceeds supply for downtown condos, especially dwellings priced under $500,000. May was the first month ever that both the average and median price per foot for a downtown resale was over $400/ft.

At the extremes, asking prices for new construction high-luxury condos are approaching $1000 per foot, and there are several recently recorded transactions between $700-$800 per square foot.

Downtown condo inventory as of 6/7/2013

1) total resales available = 49
2) total new construction available = 77 est.

As of this post, there are only 13 units for sale under $500,000, and built within the past 15 years, in all of downtown Austin. This leaves us with just over one month of inventory available for the largest segment of condo buyers in downtown’s core.

The lack of new product in the market is putting significant upward pricing pressure on resales. With no new condo development planned in downtown, as interest rates remain low, resale prices will continue to rise to meet the demand.

You’ll recall that back in January, for the first time, the average sales price of a new construction downtown condo exceeded, $1,000,000. There were 14 closings in May for new construction condos: the Austonian, W Hotel, and Four Seasons Residences. Spring is sold out. [UPDATE: The Four Seasons is sold out, with contracts pending.] The W ~~and Four Seasons~~ could officially be sold out after another couple months of sales and pending contracts close. The Austonian has a pretty good inventory remaining, but soon lacking any competition sales could accelerate quickly.

May 2013 Resale Statistics

- Total sales volume (resales only) =  $12,717,900
- # of resale transactions = 22
- avg price per foot = $453
- median price per foot = $424
- avg sales price = $578,086
- avg sales price to list price (SP/LP) = 97%
- avg condo size = 1275 sq. ft.
- avg price per bedroom = $343,727
- avg days on market (DOM) = 43 days

May 2013 New Construction Statistics

- # of new construction transactions = 14
- avg price per foot = $700-$800/ft est.
- Total new construction sales volume =  not reported

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BREAKING: Sales Of New Downtown Austin Condos Average More Than $1,000,000

Jude Galligan | January 8, 2013 |

For the first time, the average sales price of a new condo in downtown Austin is more than $1,000,000.

It’s not news that residences cost more than $1,000,000. It is news when we’re talking about averages! To be clear, we are focusing on new construction only, not resales (which have also had a banner year, and we’ll cover that in a future post.)

In 2012, the Austonian, Four Seasons Residences, W Hotel Residences, and Spring Condos (which in 2012 closed out their sales), accounted for 124 sales.

According to builder reports assembled by Capitol Market Research for new construction condos sold during the past 12 months:

average price = $1,061,682
average size = 1,701 ft.
number new condos sold = 124

The data is provided to us monthly as an aggregate of the above four buildings. Anonymizing individual building sales was the only way to convince the developers to share their sales data. To qualify the average price, we can approximate a median price using the 12 monthly aggregate records we have.

median monthly average price = $1,044,181 (min $777,813 to max $1,687,857)

The refrain which began in 2010 continues: there are no new downtown Austin condos being built. Nor have we seen any new site plans for downtown condos. Inventories continue to decrease (by 124 units in 2012) and residences are selling quickly at prices close to the asking price. An ancillary effect of this shrinking inventory is rising prices for resales.

By my estimation, when compared against TCAD records, only 115 new construction units remain. If interest rates remain low, the downtown Austin real estate market is on a trajectory to complete sales of new construction condos in 2013.

I’ll continue to provide detailed analysis of 2012 results over the coming weeks, including resales and analysis of building-by-building performance.

-Jude

BY THE NUMBERS (June): Downtown Austin Condo Sales

Jude Galligan | July 23, 2012 |

In June, we observed downtown Austin condo prices averaging $381/ft for resales and $590/ft for new-luxury sales. With no new projects planned, a chunk of downtown Austin’s condo inventory is removed every month.

Pricing in Austin’s urban core continues to trend up for three reasons:

1) Shrinking inventory emboldens sellers
2) Low interest rates – hovering at 3.40% – enticing buyers
3) Migration patterns into Texas, specifically Austin, more specifically downtown Austin

Combined sales of new construction and resales removed 41 units from inventory in June, representing $25,156,400 total sales volume.

Currently, there are 94 resales and 172 new construction units available for sale in the downtown Austin core.

June 2012 Resale Statistics

- # of resale transactions = 28
- avg price per foot = $381
- avg sales price to list price (SP/LP) = 91%
- avg days on market (DOM) = 17 days
- Total resales volume =  $12,829,900

June 2012 New Construction Statistics

- # of new construction transactions = 13
- avg price per foot = $590
- Total new construction sales volume =  $12,326,500

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BY THE NUMBERS: Downtown Austin Highrise Sales

Jude Galligan | May 10, 2012 |

In light of the recent Statesman article highlighting new construction sales, I thought this would be a good time to update our trending chart for downtown condos.

Combined sales of new construction and resales of downtown Austin condos delivered a seasonally strong 46 transactions representing $26,720,149 total sales volume in March.

Currently there are 95 resales and 197 new construction condos available for sale in the downtown Austin core. That’s not many. Within the past 12 months, we’ve seen 201 resales and 186 new construction sales.

In the chart below, that little red trend line for average resale price per foot gets steeper each month as we see more resales in the top-tier buildings. By this time next year, you will be able to count the total availability of new construction condos on two hands.

March 2012 Resale Statistics

- # of resale transactions = 29
- avg price per foot = $364
- avg sales price to list price (SP/LP) = 97%
- avg days on market (DOM) = 32 days
- Total resales volume =  $12,038,599

March 2012 New Construction Statistics

- # of new construction transactions = 17
- avg price per foot = $554
- Total new construction sales volume =  $14,681,550

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DAB Stats: Downtown Austin Sales

Jude Galligan | March 28, 2012 |

February delivered strong numbers for sales of downtown Austin condos. I count nine new construction sales and 14 resales (compared to six and 10 in January respectively).

The 14 resales averaged $397 per square foot – the highest monthly average for resales that I can remember. Don’t mistake this for accelerating appreciation, though. Included in February’s numbers is a resale at the Austonian. And, while there’s clearly a gradual upward trend in the resale market, February’s price-per-foot surge is attributable to this burgeoning market for resales in the top-tier buildings.

downtown austin condo sales - february 2012 — trailing 12 months of downtown condo sales

You can anticipate that by the end of March all of the top-tier buildings will [factually] be over 50% closed. Each has already crossed the chasm.

Notably, Spring condos has only a couple of new units left, the [seriously amazing] penthouse(s) being one of them. For most buyers, Spring condos can be considered sold out and opportunities to buy are in the resale market. The Four Seasons Residences leads the pack in terms of percentage of units sold, though the W Hotel Residences is showing the greatest velocity. See below.

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