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Downtown Austin condos: do the math

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The math
The math of Downtown Austin condos

OK.  We did the math.  Below is DAB’s analysis of the inventory of condos in Downtown Austin.

776 residences were delivered in 2008
670 +/- units have sold
106 unit surplus.

This is a net absorption of over 600 units in one year.  The 360 Condominiums has only 2 units left.

789+/- units under construction in downtown Austin
+/- 350 of the 789 units are under contract

545 +/- units remain in downtown through at least 2013.

There are no projects coming online that are not already under construction. It takes 2-3 years to build a project and it is unlikely a developer will get construction financing for another 12-18 months.

To put things in perspective, Miami area is delivering approximately 60,000 high rise condominiums during this development cycle.  Miami MSA is approximately 2,387,000 people. That is a ratio of 1 condo for every 40 Miami MSA residents.

The Austin area is delivering approximately 1565 high rise condominiums during this development cycle. Austin MSA is approximately 1,600,000 people… that is a ratio of 1 new condo downtown for every 1,022 Austin MSA residents.  A single project in downtown Miami is larger than the entire number of units being delivered in downtown Austin over a 6 year period!

SOLD! Plaza Lofts #1208

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Downtown Austins Plaza Lofts
Downtown Austin's Plaza Lofts

LP: $320,000
SP: $310,000
SF: 1,194

Top floor at Plaza Lofts for $260psf is a very good deal.  From Kumara Wilcoxen’s listing… “Top floor condo located in the most desirable location downtown. 13ft ceilings, floor-ceiling windows, polished concrete floors, granite, travertine marble baths. Walk to dining, entertainment, town lake etc.”

311 w 5th st, austin, tx 78701

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Downtown Austin Condos: Build or bust? Fact or editorial disguised as fact?

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by jude galligan

does the statesman use dirty headline tactics?
"At last?"

The Austin American Statesman is one of two local papers (the other being the Chronicle) that reach Austin’s masses. These newspapers set the agenda and guide the discussion on topics of their choosing. The words printed on the pages of the Statesman, Austin’s most widely read newspaper, have the power to affect the home values and lives of thousands of Austinites. With that power comes responsibility.

Wednesday morning I picked up a Statesman at Jos Coffee and in big bold black letters “Condos caught by crisis at last”, “Breakneck rate on sales of units, construction slows as credit and capital dry up”.

Curiously, neither of those dramatic headlines exist in the online version of the article. In the print edition, immediately to the left, in much smaller font, was the news – the government is injecting $800MM to expand the credit markets.

Shonda Novak is a staff writer at the Statesman and wrote the above article. Shonda has been reporting on Austin real estate for years. If Shonda writes that the sky is falling on Austin real estate, then 100k+ Austin readers look at their spouse and say “Hon, did you see that article in today’s paper about Downtown condos? I’m telling you, Babe, those developers will never sell all those condos! Just wait and they’ll be selling them at twenty cents on the dollar!”

I read and re-read the article. Seeing the print edition headline, I expected catastrophe. Instead, I found nothing at all particularly newsworthy.

Is it possible that the Statesman’s headline was overly sensational?

Taking a similar approach to how I dissected this article, after the jump, I’ve cut/pasted a handful of quotes from the article, and then I explain if that quote is, generally speaking, true, false, or if the quotes are generalizations or simply editorial in nature.

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