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DAB STATS – May Transaction Summary

Jude Galligan | June 1, 2010 |

WHEW…

In May, we saw at least four articles suggesting that more downtown Austin buildings are forthcoming: Block 51, Austin Energy building on West Ave, City planning a new parking garage, State capitol considering more density.  We haven’t seen that many speculative media reports about downtown development since 2006.

We’ve been hammering the point that there is no more new inventory under $400 per foot.  It’s gone.  But, don’t get caught up in the hype about new construction, at least not yet.  Even if the data suggests that there is capacity for more new attainably priced product (2bds/2ba+ for under $400k), the capital markets aren’t racing to provide financing.

Conversely, there’s a robust resale market working like a well oiled machine.  The difference between average asking price and average sale price is shrinking.  Last month, across 22 transactions, this spread was ~4%.  Timid buyers and sellers should take confidence in this stability.  To drive home the point even further, we witnessed at least two bidding wars last month.  Many buyers are longing for the days of 2008 and 2009 when 25-30% discounts were being offered.

Area “DT” – MLS defined market area for downtown Austin – has such diverse product that average numbers cannot be used without qualification.   For instance, it is necessary to qualify the age, location, and level of amenities when comparing Cambridge Tower to 360 Condos. ($226psf vs. $385psf, respectively)

Average price for area DT was $283.91 per foot, based on data collected from 22 transactions recorded in May.  That is down from May of 2009 when pricing was $303 per foot across 13 transactions; however, the spread between list price and sale price in 2009 was closer to 10% – much more volatile.

The MLS data does not include private developer sales (Spring, Austonian, W Hotel, Four Seasons).  Multiple sources have shared with us that the W entered into approximately 10 deals in May, and will not accept offers with more than a 5% discount.   The Austonian recieved their certificate of occupancy and is planning it’s first closing next week.  No news from the Four Seasons.

Registered DAB subscribers may access the complete May 2010 transaction report.

-Jude

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Filed Under: Austin Real Estate Data & Statistics, DAB Stats Tagged With: austin real estate data

Kanye West Purchasing Austin Loft? Perhaps, But Not The Austonian Penthouse

Jude Galligan | December 3, 2009 |

The Austonian

I love to see effective guerrilla marketing in action.

Earlier this month it seemed as if every Austinite on twitter was sharing rumors that hip-hop fashionista Kanye West purchased the top floor of the Austonian. Skeptical, as is my nature, I was doubtful – I had just toured the top floors. The Austonian is the furthest you’ll get from a proper “Austin loft“. The rumor propagated with Kanye’s lyric “New crib-LOFT IN- where its at-AUSTIN-where is that-Texas!!!”

I was scratching my head, and thinking “really?”. Pushing down my gullible pride, I bashfully confirmed with the Austonian. The rumor, of course, is 100% false, but it resulted in discussion and intrigue. This was cunning guerrilla marketing. 🙂

Think about it. Eventually, perhaps this year, a buyer will emerge for the Austonian penthouse. There are a handful of buyers that have their eye on this space, but are biding their time, waiting to see if the fierce competition among the luxury towers will further soften prices across the board. These towers are already negotiating, very discretely, behind closed doors. But, for the buyer that has their eye on a product with no substitutes, one day soon, they could wake up to real news that what they desire is no longer available.

Below, I’m reposting a comment I shared in another thread

Jude Galligan wrote:

The current market for these buildings [Spring, W, Four Seasons, Austonian] works like this: There are buyers right now paying for a specific view, or floorplan, or the flexibility of combining units. We’re negotiating hard, and seeing deals with 10-15% discounts from asking. More or less depending on the specific space and the buyer’s desire for customizations. At this level, buyers often just want a shell space and the ability to bring their architect into the discussion. There are other buyers waiting patiently for better negotiating posture in a softer market – they are less concerned about having a specific space.

Until each building receives a certificate of occupancy, and we can observe the velocity of closings on the existing contracts, it’s challenging to gauge a market for a product that Austin is unfamiliar with (i.e. luxury urban condos).

I don’t expect they will sell out before they open, unless they soften their prices in a blanket fashion come springtime. However, I don’t expect you will see auctions (with the possible exception of the attainably priced Sabine) as the financing for the Austonian, W, and Spring give them a couple of years from construction completion before they need to repay the debt.

Grapevine stories:
http://austinist.com/2009/11/04/kanye_probably_wont_be_at_the_runwa.php
http://modernmanmusic.wordpress.com/2009/04/13/gotta-loft-inaustin

Reltated posts about penthouse living:
https://downtownaustinblog.org/2009/10/09/pros-and-cons-of-living-on-the-top-floor/
https://downtownaustinblog.org/2009/06/12/the-downtown-austin-penthouse-part-one-economics/

Filed Under: downtown austin, Downtown Austin lofts, condos, apartments, Real Estate, rumors, gossip Tagged With: Austin penthouse for sale, kanye west

Downtown Austin Facts

Jude Galligan | October 28, 2009 |

downtown-austin-facts

Do you believe downtown Austin is overbuilt?   If you do, I don’t blame you for thinking that.  Over the past two years, the traditional local media outlets have delivered an array of sensational headlines, like “Condos Caught By Crisis At Last“.  But, dig a little deeper and you could find a new perspective based on data, rather than some columnist leading a band wagon.

At the Downtown Austin Blog, we are passionate about downtown and urban Austin real estate, but we can recognize that prices have softened.  In fact, we think that’s a good thing – more people can afford to move here!  As much as I’ve railed against certain Statesman columnists for their curmudgeon style sensationalism, ironically, perhaps it was those stories that drove this summer’s buying spree.  If you advertise a sale, then you expect buyers to come.  That’s what happened.

We’ve written about the auctions and discounts.  We’ve observed how an average 25% – 30% discount will clear out a building quickly – like 90 minutes quick. We’ve seen this at Brazos Place, at 360, and at the Shore where residences which had been trading at upwards of $400 per foot in 2007 are for all intents and purposes gone.

NOW WHAT?

Recently, you might have heard former Austin Mayor Will Wynn’s radio ad for downtown living.  I’ve only heard this ad on KGSR, but it could be playing elsewhere.  Click below to listen to it.

This advertisement directs you to a website called downtownaustinfacts.com.  The goal of this website is to combat mis-information about downtown Austin being over built.  To quote the website…

While many people believe that the Downtown Austin condo market is overbuilt, the fact is only about 400 new condos remain for sale downtown. With the economic downturn and continuing tight credit markets it is very unlikely that any more new condos will be built downtown for at least another 5 years. That means there are only 400 new downtown condos for sale for the next 5 years.

By my count this number is low.  If you only count Spring, W Hotel, Four Seasons, and the Austonian, then 400 units is close to accurate.  If you include the remaining units at the Sabine and 904west, (those are rehabs, not new construction) then the number is closer to 475.  Those extra 75 don’t make a big dent in the argument, however.

THE INVENTORY IS LOCKED IN.  You will not see any new projects come out of the ground until at least 2013, perhaps longer.

Here are more facts that DAB has come up with.

1) # of downtown Austin condos available for sale and ready for immediate occupancy = 284, approximately (156 in MLS + 128 Spring units, not including 44 units at Sabine)
2) # of downtown Austin condos under $300 per foot = 42 (from MLS, not including the 44 units at Sabine)

By and large, the new product under construction in downtown Austin is considered luxury product.  Downtownaustinfacts.com makes this point salient, even if not overtly.  Sabine will go to auction, soon, and then what is left that’s under $300 per foot?  The answer: only resales.  Over the next few years expect this shortage to drive demand for resales.

The past few years have been dominated by new construction.  That’s over.  The remaining inventory of new construction in downtown Austin happens to also be the most expensive.  We can speculate on pricing discounts, but until those buildings are complete, and we see contracts converting to closings, it’s too early to tell what the velocity of sales will be, and how aggressively they will negotiate with buyers.  What the data clearly shows is a shortage of attainably priced homes in downtown Austin.  There is no slowing the demand for downtown living.

-Jude

Filed Under: downtown austin

Downtown Austin Open Houses

Jude Galligan | October 11, 2009 |

(Looking for this week’s open houses? You’ll find them here.)

downtown-austin-open-house

The great thing about downtown Austin open houses is that you can generally walk from building to building. Take a stroll downtown now that summer is over and the temperature is cooler.

Today is the Downtown Living Tour, which means on this weekend’s calendar you’ll find the Austin City Lofts, 360 Condos, and the opportunity to tour the inside of several other buildings.  I will be working registration for the DLT at Gables Park Plaza.  Hope to see you there!

Sunday
1) 800 W. 5th Street #908, 2bd, 2ba, $995,000, 1-4pm [Tate Property]
2) 360 Nueces St #1616, 2bd, 2ba, $450,000, 2-4pm [Keller Williams]
3) 360 Nueces St #3801, 1bd, 1ba, $334,500, 1-3pm [Urbanspace]
http://actris.mlxchange.com/Pub/EmailView.asp?r=1076900420&s=AUS&t=AUS
4) Downtown Living Tour buildings, 12-5pm

Filed Under: austin open houses, downtown austin

Bridges On The Park

Jude Galligan | June 23, 2009 |

For information and to preview Bridges On The Park contact Jude Galligan at 512-226-3414 or jude [@] downtownaustinblog.org.

view of downtown from 6th floor of east side of building
view of downtown from 6th floor of east side of building

You might say Bridges On The Park has an identity crisis.  Is it part of South Austin?  Or, downtown Austin?  Geographically it lies in what’s generally considered South Austin.  By design and lifestyle it very closely resembles downtown.  This makes for strange bed fellows as these two neighborhoods have been portrayed in the media as clashing in recent years over Austin’s growth.

Regardless of how the residents identify themselves, the setting is one of Austin’s most spectacular urban environments: Lady Bird Lake, running trails, Butler Park, pitch n’ put golf, trees, trains, Zach Scott theater, Barton Springs Rd, Zilker park is around the corner… the list goes on.  Even the Taco Cabana next door is an Austin institution for anyone who went to high school here in the ’90s.

So, what’s the story with this place?  I’m going to attempt to show you why, right now, this Bridges On The Park is one of the best real estate opportunities for downtown Austin buyers.

The raw info

Six stories.
105 units.
Full list of amenities: concierge, pool, fitness, etc.
Storage units.
Underground parking.
Aligned length-wise along Lamar Blvd.
Built by CLB Partners

Bathroom with double vanity
Bathroom with double vanity

The finish quality is high

CLB Partners is the same developer as the Austin City Lofts, which provides an example of CLB’s high quality construction and finish outs.  Bridges On The Park takes on much of the same philosophy: copious amounts of Texas limestone, with metal and wood accents.  The lobby, building decor, art work, and interior finishes are tastefully executed.

The bathrooms have a floating (I suppose cantilevered) cabinet design which allows lighting to come from below.  Wherever possible a double vanity is used.

Historical Paggi House adjacent to Bridges On The park
Historical Paggi House adjacent to Bridges On The park

Mixed Use

Pedestrian friendly retail on the ground floor, combined with the proximity to the parks and running trails make Bridges On The Park truly mixed use.  The setting of the development surrounds the historical Paggi House.

The economy has been hard on this development

Completed in 2008, of the 105 units, 32 remain unsold [and one resident is furious about a new billboard].  Many buyers could not find mortgages when it came time to close.  Originally prices were characteristic of 2007 at $400+per foot.  Many new buyers are skeptical about prices that are still high compared to the deals which have been clearing the inventory downtown condos this past Spring.

The Opportunity

A marketing blitz earlier this year carried an opportunity for 20% off – a deal that generated roughly a dozen sales for CLB Partners.  From the perspective of my clients, interest in Bridges On The park started to wane in April, as the anticipation for the Brazos Place auction grew and other developers began to negotiate attractive discounts.

The remaining 32 units are priced at an asking price of $324/ft on average.  Like most buildings, each has its own micro-economy of views and floor plans.  The east view towards the trees is priced at a premium to the west view over Lamar Blvd.

Summary

The market is buyer friendly and this is not CLB Partners’ first rodeo.  I predict that Bridges on the Park will begin to discretely entertain offers in the neighborhood of $240 per foot, on average, or about 30% off of the asking price. [See update below] The data at Brazos Place and the Shore provide evidence that this program of discounting works to quickly sell units. Add to that the superior location of Bridges On The Park, and I expect there will be some very happy buyers over the next few weeks.

[UPDATE 09/08/2009 –
The most recent inventory I have from August 17th for Bridges On The Park shows:
min price per foot = $234
max price per foot = $312

average price per foot = $278
*numbers reflect discount]

Jude Galligan, Downtown Austin Realtor
512-226-3414
judegalligan [@] gmail.com

Complete Bridges On The Park photo set on Flickr!

Filed Under: downtown austin

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