DAB Stats

HOLY COW: October Residential Transactions

Jude Galligan | November 4, 2010 |

I’m blown away by the number of closings that occurred in October for new luxury condos in downtown Austin. Total number of downtown Austin condo transactions in October is confirmed at 29 30 closings! Resale data shows eight resale transactions, two of which were over $1MM. Here’s the kicker: there were a combined 21 closings at the Four Seasons Residences, Spring, and The Austonian!

I spent extra time this month confirming transaction reports at the top-tier buildings. “Spin” was minimal and there is genuine transaction velocity.

October Highlights:

two $1MM+ resale transactions (not including developer sales at top-tier buildings)
The Austonian shows 30 closed units, nine in October.
The Four Seasons Residences shows 43 closed units, six in October.
Spring Condos closed six seven in October.
DANA’s Downtown Living Tour was the biggest ever with over 1000 attendees.
W Hotel is hiring its staff, and buyers with contracts are anxiously awaiting their Q1 2011 move in date

One not so bright spot in the data: the number of resale transactions is down year-to-year, from 18 in October of 2009 to just eight this past month. The data below highlights last month’s aggregate sales statistics for MLS Area “DT”.

Investors and economic contrarians, like me, who demand value should continue to be on the prowl for deals on downtown Austin condos by focusing on the resale market. Especially during the winter months, increased seasonal buying power is evident. I’m working one short sale deal right now, and I’ve targeted others for my clients. For example, I’m tracking a 2bd/2ba at Milago that can be purchased for ~~under $299,900~~ SOLD (inquire with me).

The average resale price remains steady at $294.55 per square foot, compared to $293.65 psf in October 2009. The chart below shows downtown resale transactions. Notice the spike in buying activity during the springtime. Now, notice the subsequent fall off… that’s a buying opportunity. 🙂

-Jude

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DAB STATS: September Residential Transactions

Jude Galligan | October 6, 2010 |

Chill out. Cool off. It’s not just the weather, but the market chilled in September yielding a stellar month for downtown Austin buyers. In September, the average sale price of a downtown Austin condo was $282 per square foot. This is based on 12 recorded transactions in the Austin MLS. Year-to-year comparison shows last month was down from $338 per square foot across 20 transactions in September of 2009. Month-to-month, September was down from $298 per square foot across 16 transactions recorded in August.

Highlights:

-Speaking of cooling off: hell froze over in September as the Statesman, frequently antagonistic to high rises, published an upbeat review of the downtown luxury market.

-A cartoon reminded us of an all too familiar exchange.

-We saw a glimpse of 2006 with a genuine bidding war on a bank owned unit at Brazos Place.

Top Tier Summary:

Not reflected in the MLS data are developers’ direct transactions at the top-tier buildings. According to TCAD, the Austonian shows eight closings, which is one more than last month. At the W Hotel Residences, with 159 total units, we’re told that 60% of the units are under contract, and the ability to now get into the building has been increasing contract velocity to 3-4 per month. We’ve been informed that at the Four Seasons Residences ~40 units have closed, with another 40 under contract.

You can search for Austin condos and lofts using our map-based viewer. Registered members of DAB can download a complete statistical and transaction report here.

-Jude

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DAB STATS – August Residential Sales Summary

Jude Galligan | September 3, 2010 |

Oh, August. TGIF. It’s been so friggin’ hot!

August and December seem to be the two months when real estate is not a priority for most families. It’s vacation time. Back-to-school time. And, in Austin, Texas it’s violently hot. So hot that downtown Austin’s walkability loses some of its romance.

In August we recorded 16 transactions, with the average sale price of a downtown Austin condo hovering around $298 per foot. Once again, this is consistent with recent evidence that shows +/- $300 per foot seems to be a homeostatic equilibrium for downtown Austin.

Of the top-tier buildings, TCAD shows 11 7 closed units at the Austonian. The W Hotel Residences are approaching completion. The Four Seasons Residences TCAD entries have yet to be divided into individual records. TCAD can take 30 days to update.

You can search for Austin condos and lofts using our map-based viewer. Registered members of DAB can download a complete statistical and transaction report here.

-Jude

DAB STATS: July Transaction Summary

Jude Galligan | August 5, 2010 |

In July of 2007 we recorded 14 transactions at an average of $353psf.

In July of 2008 we recorded 11 transactions at an average of $289psf.

In July of 2009 we recorded 13 transactions at an average of $267psf.

In July of 2010, we recorded 12 transactions at an average of $314psf!!

What insights can we glean from four years of July transaction data? Based on my experience this year, I would say those numbers show that [in aggregate for downtown] a bottom had been reached, and we’re returning to normal where average prices hover around $300psf.

If developers reported sales (they don’t, but if they did), July’s closed Sabine units would nullify the effect of the higher priced closings at the Austonian, Spring, and Four Seasons. Also, at least two of July’s transactions were deeply discounted transactions at Milago and yet the average numbers are still strong.

The market continues to place a premium west of Congress Avenue, as transactions at Austin City Lofts and 360 condos exceed $400psf. Feedback from my clients indicate this premium is a reflection of these buildings’ proximity to a mix of retail uses and to Whole Foods. As inventories of new construction continue to dwindle, the average buyers’ expectations are beginning to come back inline with a healthy resale market.

An example of a great buy in July: Milago #423. A 2bd/2ba corner unit at tree level with city views for $300,000. The seller took a hit on this one and originally paid $382,500. Also, I’m bullish on the Rainey Street District, future improvements to Waller Creek, and the desirability of living near the trail for couples/families.

What does the buyer who prioritizes value do now? Be prepared. Get pre-qualified for a mortgage. Be ready to pounce on the random short sale or bank owned property. I seem to find 1-2 each month. Forget about foreclosure auctions in downtown – they simply do not happen with any regularity, and 99% of the time the bank takes back the property and lists it on the MLS market where they can get closer to market rates. Of course, you can go to the courthouse to see for yourself. Or, you can just contact me.

Registered members of DAB can download a complete statistical and transaction report here.

-Jude

DAB STATS – June Transaction Summary

Jude Galligan | July 1, 2010 |

In June we made local real estate history.

1) We observed the most expensive (per foot) recorded transaction ever in downtown Austin: the 43rd floor 2bd/2ba 2022ft penthouse at 360 Condos, once owned by the building’s developer, sold for $717psf. Note, this sets the record for a recorded transaction in downtown, that is auditable via the MLS. We’re familiar with the off-record purchase of the 11,000ft penthouse at the Four Season Residences for more than ~$1,000 per square foot.

2) The Austonian posted in June a 3bd/3ba 45th floor unit for sale @ $1120psf. This is the most expensive (per foot) unit ever listed in the MLS area “DT”. Mind you, the 45th floor is well below the penthouse.

3) The Austonian and Four Seasons now have residents, and each building has closed more than a dozen units, with more in queue. These transactions are not reflected in the summary data below.

The transactions in aggregate show year-to-year growth for the month of June from 13 to 17 transactions, selling at an average of $296psf to the current $321psf, respectively. Compared to last month, prices are up from May’s average of $284psf. As always these numbers require qualification. Prices did not surge 13% from last month as the raw data would indicate.

In May, nearly 25% of the transactions occurred in buildings outside of the downtown core (Cambridge Tower, Penthouse, Greenwood Tower). These buildings can generally trade $100psf less than the average, so when there is an abnormal number represented in “DT” sales, it brings the averages down. In June, there were only two of these transactions.

I’m increasingly using a modified version of the DT boundary that brings the boundary south from MLK to 15th Street, as this better represents the core, but I will always indicate this to you when doing so.

Registered members of DAB can download a complete statistical and transaction detail report here.

-Jude